The latest poll, released Saturday by SurveyUSA for the Denver Post, has Colorado’s marijuana legalization initiative at 51%, with 40% opposed and 8% undecided. The initiative, Amendment 64, would legalize the possession of up to an ounce by adults 21 and over, and allow for state-regulated cultivation and sales.
While in line with other recent polls, the SurveyUSA/Denver Post poll marks the first time in recent months that support for the initiative has broken 50%, except for an outlier June Rasmussen poll that had support at 61%. The Talking Points Memo’s PollTracker Average, which includes this latest poll, currently shows 49.7% for Amendment 64, with 39.3% opposed.
The poll found stronger support among men (53%) than women (49%), with 12% of women saying they were still undecided, compared to 5% of men.
When it came to support by age group, support was highest among the 18-to-34 group (61%), followed by the 50-to-64 group (58%). But support declined below 50% for the 35-to-49 group (44%) and those 65 and older (37%).
The numbers suggest that parents with young children and especially mothers remain a weak spot for the Campaign to Regulate Marijuana Like Alcohol. In its early advertising, the campaign has been targeting that demographic.
While the poll numbers are good, they also suggest that this will be a very close contest. In 2010, California’s Proposition 19 was polling at 52% three months before the election, but it ended up losing with only 46% of the vote.
A similar measure was on the ballot in Colorado in 2006, but it lost 59% to 41%.
The SurveyUSA/Denver Post poll was conducted between September 9th and 12th, and relied on automated calls. It has a margin of error of +/- 4%.